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Hurricane Beryl track and outlook; expected to dissipate before reaching Gulf

Beryl is now a hurricane with winds of 75 miles an hour. Hurricane Beryl is moving west at about 14 miles an hour. It's a very small hurricane and Greg Bostwick expects it to dissipate after about four days when it encounters strong, shearing winds near the Lesser Antilles. Watch Greg's forecasts tonight on KFDM News and Fox 4 News for new details about Beryl and our increasing rain chances this weekend.


From NOAA -

Deep convection associated with the tiny tropical cyclone has

continued to become better organized overnight. An earlier AMSR2

microwave overpass showed a well-defined mid-level eye and a

pinhole eye has been apparent in the various GOES-16 satellite

channels since shortly after 0600 UTC and was most evident around

0715 UTC. Although the clarity of the eye has waxed and waned since

that time, there is enough convective organization to increase the

initial intensity to 65 kt, making Beryl the first hurricane of the

2018 Atlantic hurricane season.

The cyclone has another 18-24 hour within very low vertical wind

shear conditions and over SSTS of 26-27 degrees Celsius. These

favorable conditions suggest that the tiny hurricane is likely to

intensify further today. The NHC intensity forecast calls for

additional strengthening and is at the upper-end of the intensity

guidance, but I would not be too surprised if the compact hurricane

reaches a slightly higher peak intensity than indicated below. By

36 hours, the shear is forecast to increase to more than 15 kt, and

it is expected to be greater than 20 kt shortly after that time.

This should cause the very small tropical cyclone to quickly

weaken, however as mentioned in the Key Messages below there is

greater uncertainty than usual regarding Beryl's intensity

forecast. Although the updated NHC forecast shows Beryl

reaching the Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm it is highly

possible that the system will have degenerated into an open trough

by that time. Regardless of the system's status at 72 h, it is

likely to bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rains to

portions of the Lesser Antilles Sunday and Monday.

The initial motion estimate remains 275/12 kt. The track guidance

is in good agreement taking Beryl west-northwestward to the

south of a deep-layer ridge over the central Atlantic. There

has been little overall change in the latest dynamical guidance and

the new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and

lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope closest to

the latest ECMWF and HFIP correct consensus models.

Key Messages:

1. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual

uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity. Confidence

in the official intensity forecast is also much lower than normal.

Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are difficult to

predict are possible during the next couple of days.

2. While Beryl is still to forecast to quickly weaken or dissipate

as a tropical cyclone on Monday before reaching the Lesser Antilles,

there will likely be some rain and wind impacts on those islands

early next week. Residents there should monitor products from their

local weather office for more information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 10.6N 45.1W 65 KT 75 MPH

12H 06/1800Z 11.0N 46.6W 75 KT 85 MPH

24H 07/0600Z 11.7N 48.6W 75 KT 85 MPH

36H 07/1800Z 12.7N 51.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

48H 08/0600Z 13.6N 54.4W 55 KT 65 MPH

72H 09/0600Z 15.4N 61.9W 45 KT 50 MPH

96H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

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